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If you had invested a decade ago, would prime Lagos property or shares in a major Nigerian company have served you better?
The question is sharper now that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO is open at ₦525 a share, with a ₦5,250 minimum (10 shares) and a target of about ₦2.15 trillion (roughly $1.6 billion).
The IPO has no ten-year track record, so nobody can say what ₦1 million put in today will be worth in 2036. Property does have a decade of visible price history.
So this article compares that history with Dangote Cement, a long-listed Dangote company. It is not a forecast.
Historical comparison — not a forecast
The short answer
Prime Lagos property has shown very strong appreciation, roughly 22–26% a year in naira in several markets. Dangote Cement returned about 19.5% a year from price alone and about 21.7% with dividends.
The Dangote Refinery IPO is a different investment whose return cannot yet be known.
The fair conclusion is that property has been in the same range as a top blue-chip share, and ahead of it in some markets. It is not that property always wins.
Reference dataset
Recorded Lagos growth rates, 2018 to 2023
A Lagos price dataset presented through the Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV) recorded these compound annual growth rates for 2018–2023:
| Location | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana Island | 12.5% | 25% | 175% | 200% | 225% | 26.58% |
| Lekki Phase 1 | 0% | 40% | 75% | 100% | 210% | 25.39% |
| Ikoyi | 23.97% | 34.99% | 79.06% | 134.16% | 203.03% | 24.82% |
| Victoria Island | 17.30% | 50% | 66.67% | 100% | 200% | 24.57% |
Cumulative price growth against a 2018 base. All four markets grew above 24% a year, which points to a broad repricing rather than one hot neighbourhood.
Section 02
The four markets, 2016 to 2026
Land is scarce in these areas: you can issue more shares, but you cannot create another Banana Island or Ikoyi. The table uses published 2016 reference prices and 2026 market data.
| Market | Earlier (₦/sqm) | Recent (₦/sqm) | Increase | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lekki Phase 1 | ₦150,000 | ₦1.5m | ~900% | ~25.9% |
| Ikoyi | ₦328,000 | ₦2.45m | ~647% | ~22.3% |
| Victoria Island | ₦300,000 | ₦2.1m | ~600% | ~21.5% |
| Banana Island | ₦350,000–₦400,000 | ₦3.5m–₦5m+ (asking) | ~775%–1,329% | ~24%–30% |
Victoria Island fell about 30% in 2016 as Eko Atlantic added supply, then repriced sharply higher, so appreciation is not a straight line. Banana Island figures come from listings rather than a continuous index, so treat them as a range. Individual streets, titles and plots can differ widely from these area averages.
Actual values
What those prices mean for actual plots
Percentages are easy to quote and easy to misread. Applying the same reference prices to common plot sizes shows the amounts a buyer is actually dealing with in Lekki Phase 1, Ikoyi, Victoria Island and Banana Island.
| Plot size | Lekki Phase 1 (₦1.5m) | Ikoyi (₦2.45m) | Victoria Island (₦2.1m) | Banana Island (₦3.5m–5m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300 sqm | ₦450m | ₦735m | ₦630m | ₦1.05bn–₦1.5bn |
| 500 sqm | ₦750m | ₦1.225bn | ₦1.05bn | ₦1.75bn–₦2.5bn |
| 600 sqm | ₦900m | ₦1.47bn | ₦1.26bn | ₦2.1bn–₦3bn |
| 1,000 sqm | ₦1.5bn | ₦2.45bn | ₦2.1bn | ₦3.5bn–₦5bn |
| 2,000 sqm | ₦3bn | ₦4.9bn | ₦4.2bn | ₦7bn–₦10bn |
A 1,000 sqm parcel in Lekki Phase 1 was about ₦150 million at the 2016 reference price and is about ₦1.5 billion now, a rise of roughly ₦1.35 billion. Percentages can hide how large these amounts are.
₦150m → ₦1.5bn
Illustrative 2016–2026 Lekki Phase 1 land value movement
Historical and reference pricing only. This is not a current valuation of any individual property.
Section 03
What land prices mean for apartments and duplexes
Land price per square metre is not the same as an apartment's price per square metre.
A completed residence carries the site plus everything required to build, approve, finance and sell it. The components below all sit inside the price a buyer eventually pays.
01
Land
02
Construction
03
Professional fees
04
Approvals
05
Infrastructure
06
Finance costs
07
Marketing
08
Developer margin
09
Location premium
Illustration only — not a valuation
A simple illustration
- Site: ₦1.5 billion (1,000 sqm in Lekki Phase 1 at the reference price)
- 10 units → approximately ₦150m land component per unit
- 5 units → approximately ₦300m land component per unit
A 600 sqm Lekki Phase 1 site at about ₦900 million means much of the property's price can be attributable to land. The building ages and may require renovation; the land remains.
Why a ₦500 million apartment is not just a building
The buyer is paying for a share of scarce land plus quality, amenities, security, parking and the developer's reputation. So two apartments at the same price can be very different investments.
Ask
- How much land supports each unit?
- How much of the price is land?
- How much is construction?
- What is the location premium?
- What is the developer margin?
More land per unit is not automatically better; it is simply part of understanding the value.
Section 04
Dangote Cement and the new IPO
Two different investments.
Do not confuse two different investments. Dangote Cement has a long trading history. The Dangote Refinery IPO does not.
Card A
Dangote Cement
- Share price approximately ₦180 in September 2016
- Approximately ₦1,066.70 on 23 September 2026
- Approximately 493% growth
- Approximately 19.5% annualised before dividends
- Historical dividends from 2016 through ₦45
- Approximately ₦212 total dividends
- Approximately 21.7% annualised when dividends are added to the ending value, without reinvestment or tax
Card B
Dangote Refinery IPO
- IPO opened: 14 September 2026
- Closes: 13 October 2026
- 4.1 billion new shares
- Offer price: ₦525
- Minimum: ₦5,250 / 10 shares
- Target raise: approximately ₦2.15 trillion
- Refinery capacity: approximately 700,000 barrels/day
- Expansion target: approximately 1.4 million barrels/day
- Reported first-half 2026 revenue: above $13 billion
- Reported first-half 2026 net profit: approximately $1.82 billion
- Reported implied equity value at offer price: approximately ₦65 trillion / $48 billion
The IPO has no ten-year track record, so its future return cannot be known from historical performance.
Side by side
Approximate annual growth
| Investment | Approx. annual growth |
|---|---|
| Banana Island land | ~24%–30% |
| Lekki Phase 1 land | ~25.9% |
| Ikoyi land | ~22.3% |
| Dangote Cement, price plus dividends | ~21.7% |
| Victoria Island land | ~21.5% |
| Dangote Cement, price only | ~19.5% |
Not a like-for-like comparison. Property figures are land-price references and asking prices; the share figure is a listed price plus cash dividends. Property figures exclude purchase costs, holding costs, taxes and selling costs, and the share figures exclude tax and trading costs.
Investor responsibility
The key question is how much future growth that price already reflects.
The company's own materials warn that share prices can fall as well as rise and that dividends are not guaranteed. The SEC tells investors to read the approved prospectus before subscribing.
Nothing here is a recommendation to subscribe or not to subscribe.
Section 05
Rent, inflation, the naira and risks
Two kinds of return
The property appreciation above is capital appreciation only. A fuller comparison should consider both sides of each return.
Property
Capital appreciation + Rent
Shares
Capital appreciation + Dividends
Property may also gain value through renovation or redevelopment, which has no direct equivalent in a listed share.
Inflation
Nigerian inflation over the period was high and uneven. Construction inputs such as cement, steel, labour and imported fittings became more expensive, increasing replacement costs.
- 201615.7%
- 201716.5%
- 201812.1%
- 201911.4%
- 202013.2%
- 202117.0%
- 202218.8%
- 202324.7%
- 202433.2%
- 202523.0%
Annual inflation rates as reported in the source data reviewed for this article.
The naira
Every figure above is in naira. Over the same period the exchange rate moved from approximately ₦305/$ in December 2016 to approximately ₦1,328/$ in September 2026.
An investor measuring wealth in dollars would therefore experience a materially different outcome. Historical naira returns should not be read as dollar returns.
Risk comparison
Property risks
- Vacancy
- Tenant default
- Maintenance
- Flooding
- Title problems
- Construction defects
- Poor management
- Illiquidity
- Overpaying
Share risks
- Refining margins
- Crude supply
- Expansion costs
- Currency
- Policy
- Valuation
Dangote Cement itself has moved sharply, with a 52-week range of approximately ₦516–₦1,189.
The best question is not “property or Dangote?” but what role each plays in a portfolio, given your time horizon, liquidity needs, capital and risk tolerance.
Section 06
Why small differences compound
Annual rates that look close produce very different outcomes over a decade.
| Annual return | ₦100m after 10 years |
|---|---|
| 20% | ~₦619m |
| 22% | ~₦731m |
| 25% | ~₦931m |
| 26% | ~₦1.0bn |
At 20%
₦100m → ~₦619m
At 25%
₦100m → ~₦931m
A five-point gap (20% versus 25%) is worth about ₦312 million on ₦100 million.
Hypothetical illustration — not a forecast
Section 07
What to look for when buying
01
Scarcity
Can comparable land easily be supplied?
02
Demand
Who wants to live, work or invest there?
03
Infrastructure
How established is the area?
04
Rental market
Can the property earn while you hold it?
05
Exit market
Will buyers exist in 5, 10 or 15 years?
06
Land per unit
How much land supports your apartment?
07
Development economics
How much of the price is land, construction, finance and margin?
Location matters more than the asset class. Ordinary property in an oversupplied area cannot be assumed to match these prime markets.
Conclusion
Conclusion
Over the last decade prime Lagos land has multiplied in naira value, in several markets at rates similar to or above a major blue-chip share.
Scarcity, demand and rising replacement costs sit behind much of that movement, and rental potential can add to the return while an owner holds. Those characteristics come with a long holding period and limited liquidity: property cannot be sold in a morning, and transaction costs are material.
The Dangote Refinery IPO may prove an excellent investment, but its price reflects expectations that earnings must justify, and its future is unknown.
Historical appreciation is evidence, not a promise.
Lekki Phase 1's past growth does not mean 25% a year for the next decade.
Questions
Frequently asked
Has prime Lagos property outperformed Dangote Cement shares?
Over the period reviewed, land-price references in several prime Lagos markets grew at rates similar to or above Dangote Cement’s annualised return including dividends. The datasets are not directly comparable: property figures are reference and asking prices excluding purchase, holding and selling costs, while the share figures are listed prices plus cash dividends excluding tax and trading costs. The comparison is historical and does not establish which will perform better in future.
Can we compare property with the Dangote Refinery IPO?
Not on the basis of past returns. The Dangote Refinery IPO has no ten-year track record, so its future return cannot be known from historical performance. Dangote Cement is used in this article because it has a long trading history; it is a different company and a different business.
Why are prime Lagos apartments so expensive?
The price of a completed apartment reflects a share of scarce land plus construction, professional fees, approvals, infrastructure, finance costs, marketing, developer margin and a location premium. Two apartments at the same price can therefore be very different propositions.
Does past Lagos property appreciation guarantee future returns?
No. Historical appreciation is evidence of what has happened, not a promise of what will happen. Lekki Phase 1’s past growth does not mean 25% a year for the next decade.
Is land price the same as apartment price per square metre?
No. Land price per square metre measures the value of the site. An apartment’s price per square metre also carries construction, fees, approvals, infrastructure, finance, marketing, developer margin and location premium, and depends on how many units share the site.
Data and methodology
Nigeria has no single continuous 2016–2026 transaction index for each neighbourhood. This analysis combines:
- · NIESV Lagos growth data for 2018–2023
- · Published 2016 land-price references
- · 2026 market data
- · Listings, particularly for Banana Island
- · Dangote Cement share prices
- · Dangote Cement dividend records
- · Dangote Refinery IPO information
- · SEC guidance
- · World Bank inflation data
Where historical and current figures come from different datasets they are market reference points, not a continuous index.
Land-per-unit calculations are illustrations and ignore density, planning limits, construction, fees, finance, taxes and margins.
Data reviewed: September 2026.
This article is general market information, not investment, legal or financial advice, and is not an offer or recommendation regarding any security. Investments can lose value. Verify title, approvals and pricing independently and consult a licensed adviser before investing.
Last reviewed: September 2026